Monthly Archive for June, 2011

Insider Job

Eric Cantor walked out of debt-ceiling negotiations last week, increasing the liklihood of a bond market freakout if the U.S. Treasury is unable to make good on the nation’s financial obligations. As the WSJ reports, a resulting collapse in the bond market is rotten for the country, but as it turns out, it’s pretty great for Eric Cantor’s stock portfolio: Yes, the number two House Republican is currently shorting Treasury debt.

To be clear, I don’t think Cantor is at all interested in engendering a bond collapse so that he can profit financially. But at best it certainly appears to be a conflict of interest; that the man responsible for negotiating the continued soundness of U.S. credit also has a betting stake in the outcome of the negotiation.

Unseemly, yes. But illegal? Not at all. Remarkably, members of Congress and their staff are not bound by insider trading laws:

Chris Miller nearly doubled his $3,500 stock investment in a renewable-energy firm in 2008. It was a perfectly legal bet, but he’s no ordinary investor.

Mr. Miller is the top energy-policy adviser to Nevada Democrat and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, who helped pass legislation that wound up benefiting the firm. […]

Mr. Miller isn’t the only Congressional staffer making such stock bets. [From 2008-2009] at least 72 aides on both sides of the aisle traded shares of companies that their bosses help oversee. […]

The aides identified by the Journal say they didn’t profit by making trades based on any information gathered in the halls of Congress. Even if they had done so, it would be legal, because insider-trading laws don’t apply to Congress.

Congressmen and high-level staffers only have to disclose their assets and capital gains once a year, making it difficult for voters to track any possible patterns of impropriety. But again, even if such patterns are found, there’s not much to be done about it. Currently there are no Congressional ethics rules against such behavior, let alone a formal statutory prohibition.

A bill to prohibit insider trading in Congress was first introduced five years ago, garnering little support and dying a quick death. In addition to prohibiting the use of nonpublic information for the purchase or sale of commodities, the bill also would have mandated financial disclosure forms to be filed within 90 days of reportable trading activity. The bill, the Stop Trading on Congressional Knowledge Act, or Stock Act, was reintroduced in the current Congress in March. It’s currently languishing in subcommittee purgatory.

There’s a big incentive for members and staffers to not engage in this sort of thing, since obviously it doesn’t look very good. But still, let’s codify it. If I had congressional representation, I’d email them that I expect them to work for passage of the Stock Act. This is not exactly the biggest problem facing Congress at the moment, but at the margins it contributes to institutional distrust and legislative dysfunction, and we can all agree there’s plenty of that to go around already.

On Overtreatment in Health Care, Or: The Dr. Hibbert/Dr. Nick Problem

Certainly the main goal of health reform was to make sure more people have access to decent medical care. But for the 90%+ of Americans who already have decent access, I’d say that redundant, unnecessary, and just plain over-treatment is a far greater problem. One thing I hope comes out of all the delivery and effectiveness-research reforms embedded in the health law is the idea that more care doesn’t necessarily equal better care; and in fact, more care can often lead to worse health outcomes.

Here’s an item from the NYT on a new type of metal hip replacement that was billed as a vast improvement over the old plastic ball-and-cup types. Though far more expensive, the metal variety swept the nation, and by 2008 accounted for one-third of all hip replacements in America.

In essence, the old technology was repackaged as new and cutting-edge, and warnings like Mr. Black’s were ignored and considered no longer relevant. This new generation of devices was manufactured differently and reflected better designs, advocates argued.

Companies and surgeons began promoting the new implants as the next big step in orthopedics, one that would let patients, particularly middle-age ones, do strenuous physical activities because their mechanics were more natural. And patients, intrigued by ads featuring celebrity athletes, also wanted such devices.

But it turns out that there were big problems with the new method. Apparently the device was so cutting-edge that it sheds metal debris into your blood stream, which in some patients "has caused crippling tissue and muscle damage, and has produced neurological problems in others." The legal fallout is expected to be one of the largest product liability cases of the decade.

And the thing is, it turns out that under the old method, patient outcomes were pretty great:

THE modern artificial hip, which was developed by a British surgeon, Dr. John Charnley, in the 1960s, uses a relatively simple design….By the 1990s, the devices were considered highly effective, with studies then finding that implants still worked a decade after surgery in 95 percent of patients.

As the article makes clear, more careful and rigorous testing of the new hips could have prevented this disaster. But prudence was up against the strong bias of both providers and patients for the new-and-improved:

[I]nnovation’s lure led almost everyone to seize on a product promoted as a breakthrough without convincing evidence that it was better or even as good as existing options.

And here’s the kicker. It’s not just this innovation that has failed make people healthier:

"The vast majority of the ‘innovations’ on which we have spent money with respect to orthopedics over the past two decades have not resulted in improved patient outcomes,” said Dr. Kevin J. Bozic, an orthopedic surgeon and professor at the University of California, San Francisco, who has written about artificial joints’ impact on health care costs.

Why do we keep spending money on interventions that fail to improve patient outcomes? Well our bias toward "the latest and greatest" is certainly one problem. But often, we just have no idea that a certain treatment or procedure is not very effective. And even if we are told as much, we are apt to disbelieve.

For instance, did you know that arthroscopic knee surgery works no better at relieving knee pain than a placebo surgery? Don’t believe me?

In this study, 180 patients with knee pain received arthroscopic debridement, arthroscopic lavage, or simulated arthroscopic surgery in which the surgeon made small incisions without inserting instruments or removing cartilage. All patients randomized to one of these three groups signed an informed consent and were treated by the same surgeon. […]

During two years of follow-up, patients in all three groups reported moderate improvements in pain and functional ability, but neither the debridement nor the lavage group fared better than the placebo group. At certain points during follow-up, subjects receiving sham surgery reported better outcomes than those receiving debridement.

Earlier clinical trials of arthroscopic knee surgery have shown pain relief in most patients but did not compare the actual procedures to sham operations. In the U.S., more than 650,000 arthroscopic debridement or lavage procedures are performed annually, many for arthritis, at a cost of about $5,000 each.

"This study has important policy implications," Wray says. "We have shown that the entire driving force behind this billion dollar industry is the placebo effect. The health care industry should rethink how to test whether surgical procedures, done purely for the relief of subjective symptoms, are more efficacious than a placebo."

(Though an extraordinary result, I don’t know how useful this finding is in practice. Outside of a controlled study, it surely seems a little problematic to have doctors going around giving people incisions but no actual surgery. And even if they could do that, to maintain the placebo effect they’d have to keep the ruse going, charge people for the full surgery, etc.)

This brings up a related issue; what may be termed the Dr. Hibbert/Dr. Nick problem. It’s a quirk of the health care market that there is really no such thing as a "cheaper and less-effective" suite of treatment options, à la Dr. Nick. When people talk about cost control in health care, they’re not saying we should have lower prices and slightly worse medicine. They’re saying we should find a way to make the good stuff cheaper somehow.

That’s not how it works in other markets. With every other consumer good or service, you are expected to decide how much quality/awesomeness you want, and how much you should sacrifice to cost considerations. You can buy a BMW or a less awesome Hyundai. You can buy a huge, clear television, or a less-huge, less-clear one. You can get a very expensive hair cut or go to Supercuts. Car companies and tv makers and salons know that there is a big market for people who just want basic, functional stuff.

But in health care, no such market really exists. Once something better comes along, like the metal hip replacements, the "cheaper, less-good" option soon disappears. Nobody wants it. Nobody is going to choose the Supercuts of heart surgeons, or the Hyundai of oncologists. And while we expect someone with a more modest income to go buy a cheaper car or a cheaper haircut, we all recoil from the notion that that person should be forced to buy a crappier hip or a fake surgery.

But what I hope comes out of health reform over the next several years (I’m skeptical) is that it at least goes some small distance in convincing all of us that sometimes the "crappier" hip is superior, and that the fake surgery is just as good.

The Odious but Strangely Admirable Honesty of Mitch McConnell

Mitch McConnell is a strange and fascinating politician. Yes, he is a breathing, blinking humanoid machine of pure political calculation, but that’s not the strange or fascinating part. What’s strange and fascinating is that he’s sort of incapable of lying about it.

A fundamental lesson of being an elected official is that no decision by you or members of your party has ever, in the history of the world, been made with the slightest regard to political benefit. If anyone dare asks, you say your motives are always pure and strictly policy-based, that common ground is the highest possible ideal, bipartisanship is the most lovely word in the language, and “good-faith differences of opinion” explain every drop of daylight between you and the opposition on every issue.

We of course know that is all bullshit, and that most politician behavior is animated by personal animus, parochial electoral consideration, and base tribal identification. But you’re supposed to at least pretend otherwise.

McConnell never pretends. He doesn’t bother insulting us with a lot of talk about his passion for enacting positive changes in public policy on behalf of the American people. No, issues aren’t his thing. He’s head of a team, and it’s his job to do whatever he can to help his team win.

Josh Green had an excellent profile of McConnell in the Atlantic a few months ago. In it, McConnell talks about his decision, following the 2008 elections, to enforce a united wall of Republican opposition to all Democratic proposals, no matter the issue. This strategy of total complete obstructionism was quite an innovation, and McConnell was proud of it:

“We worked very hard to keep our fingerprints off of these [Democratic legislative] proposals,” McConnell says. “Because we thought—correctly, I think—that the only way the American people would know that a great debate was going on was if the measures were not bipartisan. When you hang the ‘bipartisan’ tag on something, the perception is that differences have been worked out, and there’s a broad agreement that that’s the way forward.”

He was absolutely correct about that. The public gets its opinions on most legislation from signals by political elites. If the elites are all in agreement about something, the media won’t really cover it, and the public will just assume the consensus opinion is the correct one. Only if people see Congress bickering, or better yet, one party accusing the other of destroying the Republic, do they know “something’s up” with the issue. Then the debate becomes drawn-out and acrimonious, tribal affiliation takes over, everybody digs in, and the legislation becomes near-impossible to pass.

But as with the health reform debate last year, sometimes the legislation gets through anyway. As David Frum noted in a much-discussed post last year, McConnell’s insistence on total unanimous Republican opposition didn’t keep health care from passing, it just meant that the bill would contain no Republican influence or ideas whatsoever. But the long, caustic public “controversy” surely helped Republicans take back the House in the 2010 midterms. As Frum argued, that was a crap tradeoff for conservatives: “Legislative majorities come and go. This healthcare bill is forever.” But McConnell doesn’t care about the state of American health care (he’s had 26 years in Congress to show an interest; he’s passed); he’s perfectly happy with the temporary legislative majority.

There was another great McConnell-honesty moment the other day. He was asked about the differences of opinion emerging among Republicans about Obama’s Libya intervention. McConnell said:

The only thing I can tell you at this point is that there are differences. I’m not sure that these kind of differences might not have been there in a more latent form when you had a Republican president. But I do think there is more of a tendency to pull together when the guy in the White House is on your side. So I think some of these [isolationist] views were probably held by some of my members even in the previous administration, but party loyalty tended to mute them. So yeah, I think there are clearly differences and I think a lot of our members, not having a Republican in the White House, feel more free to express their reservations which might have been somewhat muted during the previous administration.

This is just unprecedented candor. We choose our positions based on whether the guy in the White House is on our team or not. Good to know!

Just before the 2010 midterms, McConnell famously revealed his main legislative goal for the next two years: “The single most important thing we want to achieve is for President Obama to be a one-term president,” he said. The White House acted shocked by this bracing admission of pure political motive, devoid of any hint of interest in actually governing. I don’t know why they keep acting shocked. McConnell never lies about this stuff! All you have to do is ask him.

Back in January, in conversation with Mike Allen of Politico, McConnell was given an easy opportunity to engage in the usual politician bullshit about his desire to work with the president to find common ground and compromise on big issues before the 2012 election. But McConnell didn’t bite. He basically said that his definition of bargaining doesn’t mean both sides give up things they care about, but rather, it’s total Democratic capitulation to the Republican position, or else no deal:

MCCONNELL: If the president is willing to do what I and my members would do anyway, we’re not going to say no

ALLEN: But that’s not much of a concession. That’s not bargaining, to just give you what you want.

MCCONNELL: Um, I like to think I’m a pretty good negotiator.

He’s right about that. So unless the president acts and governs like a Republican, he can expect the same hostage-taking negotiation strategy every single time. And that’s of course exactly what we’ve seen.

You’ve got to have a grudging admiration for McConnell’s honesty, and his refusal to pander or engage in pretense. He also has a deeply sophisticated understanding of the dynamics of public opinion. But there are consequences to this type of proud, open cynicism. As Matt Yglesias noted regarding the unprecedented brinksmanship currently underway over the debt ceiling:

The time of knowing insider clucking about the political theater is over, and the era of repeated high-stakes clashes has begun. And basically the only way for it to end is with someone, at some point, going too far and turning the game of chicken into a car wreck.

McConnell’s legacy will be to have legitimized and routinized this sort of politics. And while it’s true that “politics going on in Washington” isn’t exactly shocking, the public’s heretofore distaste for McConnell-level cynicism has presumably set some lower limit on what is considered appropriate political behavior. But since McConnell has pursued this novel strategy with basically no consequences or public opprobrium of any kind, he’s set a new template for minority behavior; a new lower limit. And I don’t know how much lower we can go.

Spending Through the Tax Code is Still Spending

Congress and the White House have been haggling over long-term deficit cuts as they try to reach agreement on raising the debt limit. After years of repeating the incantation "Washington has a spending problem, not a revenue problem," Republicans are finally signalling a willingness to find some additional sources of revenue.

An easy way to do this would be for John Boehner and Mitch McConnell to clasp hands at a press conference and announce that, contrary to what you may have heard, federal tax rates are near historical lows; and despite it being the central economic tenet of Republicanism for thirty years, it turns out that marginal tax rates have no correlation one way or the other with economic growth. Therefore, instead of cutting food assistance to poor children, they first demand the immediate repeal of the Bush tax cuts for high-income Americans, whose wages have soared the past thirty years while the median wage has stagnated.

I suppose this probably won’t be happening, as Boehner and McConnell, and most of their Republican colleagues, are bound by a pledge to never raise marginal tax rates on anyone, for any reason, ever. As far as I know there is no similar pledge to make sure poor kids can eat.

So probably no new taxes. But mercifully, Republicans and Democrats have recently shown an interest in raising revenue through other means: by going after those insidious budget killers and market distorters known as tax expenditures. Tax expenditures are the myriad of deductions, credits, and exclusions that enable politicians to funnel money to favored constituencies without having it show up as "spending" on the federal ledger. But whatever you call it, spending through the tax code is still spending, and the sums are monstrous.

The first sign that these tax expenditures are now "on the table" in deficit talks occurred last week, when the Senate voted to end the nearly $6 billion annual ethanol tax credit. That change won’t actually become law, but it’s an important proof of principle anyway.

Here is a list of the largest tax deductions and exclusions:

 TE_Fig1_What-are-the-largest-tax-expenditures_1

As Ezra Klein notes, look closely at the list and you realize that these aren’t giveaways to the wealthy or handouts to special interests. The exclusions for employer-provided health insurance and for pension contributions, and the mortgage interest deduction? These are broad middle class benefits. Congress’s favored constituency here is, well, basically everyone. Going after these things will be politically fraught to say the least. Congress can’t even claw back a measley $6 billion from the ethanol industry without major legislative drama. The mortgage interest deduction? Good luck. 

There are really no good policy or economic arguments in favor of things like the employer health exclusion and the mortgage interest deduction. The former encourages lavish consumption of health insurance while hiding all the costs from the consumer, driving up prices throughout the system. The latter encourages irrational over-investment in housing at the expense of other investment sectors, leading to precarious bubbles that, if they burst, can blow just blew up the entire economy. Both policies are horribly regressive. And getting rid of these and similar expenditures would give you over a trillion dollars in new revenue every year. Goodbye deficit. 

The Affordable Care Act at least tries to mitigate the worst effects of the employer health exclusion; and in the wake of the housing collapse there’s been a renewed focus on the relative wisdom of subsidizing home ownership in this country. Going farther to correct some of these distortions certainly can’t be described as easy money, but it’s sure a lot of money. And it’d be good policy too.

Jon Huntsman: Why?

I really enjoyed this long profile of Jon Huntsman in the NYT Magazine. Huntsman is announcing for president tomorrow, and the piece offers a fascinating look at the process by which a smart, rich, accomplished guy convinces himself—or gets convinced by others—that he should embark on the near-insane undertaking of a national political campaign.  

Actually you get the sense from the profile that he has absolutely no clue why Barack Obama shouldn’t be president any longer; let alone why he wants to be president instead, or why someone else should want him to be president.

In the piece he gives the appearance of having thought deeply about the current political tenor of both his party and the country, and it has led him to the conclusion that this is his moment. But his diagnosis of the political landscape is all confused:

Huntsman’s bet is that some critical mass of moderate Republicans and independents — and there are still plenty of both in New Hampshire — can be persuaded to rally around a less ideological candidate who isn’t going to get personal or shape-shift, even if they don’t love all of his positions.

Character and temperament trumping the issues? Maybe that’s right!

I asked Huntsman how he thought he was going to gain traction without sharing some of the anger that Republicans felt toward his old boss. “People are going to vote not on personalities — they’re going to vote on issues,” Huntsman replied confidently.

The issues trumping personality and temperament? Maybe that’s right!

I guess he figures one of those assessments has to be true.

I do not agree with Michelle Bachmann or Rick Santorum or (potentially) Rick Perry on much of anything, but I get their candidacies. They really, genuinely believe the country is on some godless socialist unionist homosexual precipice, and they, only they, can avert, and reverse, this national suicide march. If I believed like they did, I’d want to run too!

But a moderate non-ideologue who self-describes not as a conservative but as a "pragmatic problem-solver;" who shares the Obamaian hopey-changey lament that people are "disillusioned by the professional nature of politics;" whose most strident criticism of his erstwhile boss is "to suggest that Obama pursued some policies he might not have"—really, why bother man? Even if he is on the ballot next November it sounds like he’s not altogether sure if he’d vote for himself or for Obama.

Maybe Huntsman will wow us tomorrow with a captivating argument about the rationale of his candidacy, one that’s a bit more inspiring than "You’ve got to respond to the marketplace." (You do? Why?) But the crucial PoliticsInVivo Republican endorsement remains up for grabs.

Turkey Has a Refugee Problem, Which Means the Refugees Have an Even Bigger Turkey Problem

Syrian refugees are seen in the tent compound in Boynuyogun, Turkey, near the Syrian border, June 13, 2011. (Vadim Ghirda/AP Photo)

History says that if you are displaced from your home under physical threat from your brutal government, you should really hope that the border to which you flee to save your own life is not one shared by Turkey.

Yes, Turkey has got itself a refugee problem, Syrian edition. For a nation whose central foreign policy doctrine aspires to "Zero Problems" with its neighbors, having desperate Syrians rushing the Turkish border to escape Bashar al-Assad’s murderous security crackdown presents all sorts of, well, problems. Turkey doesn’t like problems. And it really doesn’t like refugee problems.

The Kurds of Iraq have hard lessons on this point. In 1988, during Saddam Hussein’s genocidal Anfal campaign, tens of thousands of Iraqi Kurds fled into Turkey, seeking asylum. To avoid their responsibilities under international law, Turkey refused to classify the asylum-seekers as "refugees," nor the places in which they were being held—often behind wire and armed guards—as "camps." In September 1988 a Turkish official explained, "We are not calling these groups refugees…we call them ‘Iraqis who are staying here awhile.’ And we are calling the [the places where they stay] ‘temporary residence places.’" Well, conditions in the "temporary residence places" were appalling; overcrowding, unclean water, and intermittent electricity. Sickness, malnutrition, and disease were rampant. Children were denied education and adults employment.

Turkey’s view of this 1988 episode was that it received plenty of Western criticism for its treatment of the Kurdish refugees, but very little in the way of supplies and financial support for improving the conditions and/or for relocation.

So when, in 1991 during the Gulf War, Turkey was again faced with Kurds amassing on its border to escape Saddam’s vengeance—this time after a failed Kurdish uprising which was encouraged, then abandoned, by the United States—Turkey was intent upon not making the same mistake. Ankara refused to admit the refugees, and left them to fend for themselves in the mountainous border region. Saddam laid seige to the stranded Kurds, strafing them from helicopters and dropping napalm and phosphorous gas. The resulting scenes of carnage led to an increased media focus, and with Turkey’s close collaboration, the U.S., Britain, and France established a safe haven in the border province of Iraqi Kurdistan. 

Today the Turkish leadership is mindful of this rather mixed reputation when it comes to refugees. On Syria, Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu is saying the right things:

It is impossible for us to remain indifferent to the developments there….For us, the Syrians are people who have common future and destiny with us. Therefore, it is out of question to close the door to our Syrian brothers or the (refugee numbers) to stop after 10,000.

Good for him. But how is Turkey treating the thousands of refugees already across the border?

Amnesty International on Thursday accused the Turkish government of helping Syria to cover up crimes against its own people by stopping refugees telling their stories to journalists and human rights groups.

It has locked the more than 8,000 refugees who have crossed the border up in fortresslike camps and isolated them from the outside world, even obscuring them from view by covering the fences with blue plastic sheeting.

"The Turkish authorities are effectively gagging the victims," Neil Sammonds, Amnesty’s Syria expert, told The Daily Telegraph.

Oh boy. Sammonds believes one reason for this behavior is that the "Turkish government does not want people inside Syria to know what is going on because it might cause a larger wave of refugees to flee to Turkey."

To his credit, Turkish PM Tayyip Erdogan has denounced in very strong terms the brutal tactics of his putative Syrian ally, and demanded the implementation of reforms to stem the crisis.

In a rather stunning escalation, Turkey has said that if the refugees crisis worsens, it will close its border and send troops into Syria to create a safe haven for fleeing refugees. This would mimic Turkey’s enthusiasm for the Kurdish safe haven within Iraq in 1991, except this time there is no hint that Turkey desires to outsource the job of implementation and enforcement. I’d say there is almost no chance this will actually come to pass. But Turkey has a keen awareness of its role as a burgeoning regional superpower, and it’ll be interesting to see how it balances its historic distaste for helping oppressed peoples with its desire to be a reliable and responsible global stakeholder. 

Republican Candidates Struggle to Find a Way to Oppose Every Single Thing Obama Stands For

In a dream last night I did a one-on-one interview with Mitt Romney. The interview was conducted (why not) at former Massachusetts governor William Weld’s house. I hadn’t prepared at all for it so when I arrived I idled in Weld’s driveway and quickly jotted down some questions. Mitt appeared unsure why he agreed to do this interview, and he was not at all impressed when I told him that it was for this blog. That’s fair enough.

Anyway I was nervous, and the small talk with Mitt was notorously awkward. But one question I remember asking him was his view on troop withdrawals from Afghanistan, and on the larger role of American military intervention abroad. In the GOP debate the other night he revealed a rather equivocal commitment to the Republican orthodoxy of total-forever-war:

It’s time for us to bring our troops home as soon as we possibly can, consistent with the word that comes from our generals….We’ve learned that our troops shouldn’t go off and try and fight a war of independence for another nation. Only the Afghanis can win Afghanistan’s independence from the Taliban.

This set off an outburst of criticism from such total-forever-war luminaries as Lindsay Graham, James Inhofe, and various neoconservative think tankers. Romney’s campaign quickly backtracked, assuring us that, “He has a very clear understanding of the strategic importance of [Afghanistan] in this fight.”

Romney was not alone in his tapdancing around the prudence of U.S. military intervention. Republicans are in a real bind here. On one hand there is clear growing public disenchantment with the wars: the cost, the length, the perception of stalemate, the distraction from more pressing problems at home. On the other hand, Republicans still have to signal that U.S. military hegemony is awesome, that the word of the commanders is sacrosanct, and that “less war” is something that only weak people want. The Tea Party has been emblematic of this schism I think. There is a strong isolationist/retrenchment wing, and a “we just can’t afford it” wing; yet both are overlaid with themes of ostentatious military valorization, jingoism, miniature American flags, etc.

And I think the strongest partisan impulse at play here, as in other policy areas, is, “Oppose whatever President Obama is for.” But in foreign policy it’s not easy to make a clear comprehensive differentiation with the president. He surged in Afghanistan; he went into Libya but not very hard; he told Mubarak to step down but not Assad; he shot bin Laden in the face; he offered to engage Iran but then sanctioned the hell out of them; he’s committed to drawing down in Iraq but sort of open to staying if we are asked.

Signaling disagreement with these policies is not as easy as saying, “Obama did stimulus and bailouts and government takeover of health care, and I’m against all that because I love freedom.” It’s impossible to have a coherent, overarching opposition to Obama’s foreign policy. But of course it’s a two-party system, Republicans have to try.

This explains a lot of the candidates’ muddled responses during the (very brief) foreign policy section of the debate. Michele Bachmann said emphatically that Libya is not in America’s vital national interest and we shouldn’t have gone in. Yet she then said that Obama’s Libya policy is substantially flawed because we didn’t take the lead enough!

Rick Santorum made an attempt at comprehensive opposition. This required a monstrous straw man: He said Obama has done “everything he can” to turn his back on our allies, and embrace our enemies. So Santorum is definitely opposed to that approach. Good to know.

Romney picked up on the ‘embracing enemies’ theme, and said the president in fact has no foreign policy, except for his penchant for “throw[ing] our friends under the bus.”

And of course most of these utterances were punctuated by the requisite tic, “…consistent with our commanders on the ground.” (In fact Ron Paul’s best moment of the night was when he reminded everyone on stage that as commander-in-chief, he would tell the generals what to do, not the other way round.)

Reconciling the isolationists, the jingoists, and the oppose-Obamaists represents a major ongoing challenge for the GOP as it evolves beyond its batshit crazy phase. But though it’s a problem, it may not be an urgent one. I think so long as the economy dominates the headlines, the candidates can get away with this sort of fumbling confusion on foreign policy.

But as Ezra Klein wisely notes today, the smart bet is being made by soon-to-be candidate John Huntsman, who has become increasingly outspoken in his opposition to our presence in Afghanistan and Libya, both on fiscal and ideological grounds. Huntsman has by far the most foreign policy experience among the candidates. Shockingly, I don’t think the word “China” came up once during the GOP debate. But no one is better positioned than Huntsman to argue that our relationship with the Chinese government is far more consequential to our future security and prosperity than is our relationship with the Afghan government.

Ezra thinks that Huntsman’s emphasis on foreign policy is smart because while economic issues are ascendant right now, we have no idea what will dominate the campaign in a year’s time.

By staking out foreign-policy territory when no one else seems particularly interested in the topic, [Huntsman] sets himself up to capitalize on a black-swan crisis that unexpectedly makes foreign policy issue #1 in the presidential campaign, and he also makes himself strong on a set of issues where the other candidates understand themselves to be weak.

This is a good point, but it would have to be some crisis to distract GOP primary voters from his views on climate change (believes in it), gay rights (for them), and the stimulus (didn’t think it was large enough). In my upcoming dream interview with Huntsman I’ll definitely ask him about this.

On L’Affaire Weiner

One of the more (ok, only) interesting questions to come out of the Weiner scandal—which is becoming more sordid all the time—is, should we care? Or, since “we” don’t have a vote in the matter; should his constituents care? Or is a committed progressive voter in Queens still better off with Weiner-the-adulturous-sex-twitterer than with no Weiner at all? Do his virtual flirtation habits merit public scrutiny?

Matt Yglesias argues that while character surely counts, it’s not completely clear that we should let this new data point about Weiner override all the information we already have about him, from his substantive policy priorities (love them or hate them) to the character traits he has revealed to us thus far through his ubiquitous media appearances (love them or hate them). I think I agree with this view.

This obviously doesn’t let him off the hook on the charge of general scumbaggery. I take it for granted that men enjoy in principle the idea of sexual attention from strange women. Powerful men have more opportunities to encounter and act on such attention. Now from that principle a powerful man can either decide to send out pictures of his cock to flirtatious admirers, or he can decide not to. We recognize that those who choose cock-sending over non-cock-sending are engaging in a major deficiency of judgment; and if such behavior betrays a wedding vow or the trust of a partner, the action is also immoral.

But I think the ultimate arbiter of punishment for these actions is his wife.

One may argue: Well this is a public matter because his scumbaggery in this area surely translates to other areas, ones more relevant to his congressional duties; and so this incident is just a snapshot that reveals something fundamentally fetid in his character.

But as Julian Sanchez notes, reams of social science research show that our behavior is incredibly domain-specific. We really don’t have one character that follows us into the myriad different contexts we encounter. We act virtuous here but not there. We are hyper-rational at work but not in the street. Nassim Taleb presents some of this research in his book the Black Swan. Professional statisticians can’t apply simple statistical inferences in their daily lives, outside of the domain of their classroom or their research conference. Doctors smoke. Philosophers question the veracity of their very senses, but believe in the stock market enough to approve automatic contributions to their pension plans. People will take the escalator up to the gym, then ride the StairMaster.

Point is, if a politician lies about cock pictures, it does not necessarily mean that he is more apt to lie about other things. If he displays a miserable lack of self-discipline when it comes to online flirtation, it does not necessarily mean he will prove undisciplined on the campaign trail, or in the hearing room, or while crafting legislation. Rep. Weiner has been in politics for a long time, and superficially he seems very successful at it. Politicians don’t generally succeed by repeatedly showing crappy judgment and no self-discipline.

Of course sometimes a sexual scandal reveals flaws in character that permeate several domains. People always joke that Bill Clinton got in trouble for the grand offense of receiving a blowjob in the Oval Office. But the real problem is that throughout his career he serially abused his position of authority to prey on less powerful women, and then began a shameful campaign to publically discredit and disgrace these women in an attempt to undermine their credibility. That’s not bad judgment, that’s sociopathy.

Clinton-level pathology aside, my general view is that assessments of a politician’s relative scumbaggery are best left to the voters. Weiner shouldn’t resign. Let his constituents take a holistic approach to the question if he is on the ballot in 2012. And whether his behavior in the adulterous-twittering-sexual domain is outside the bounds of marital propriety? That’s his wife’s business and not ours.

Update: John Sides presents some interesting research on how voters react to different types of hypothetical political scandals. Turns out it’s a little better to have a moral scandal (infidelity) than a financial one (tax evasion). And no matter which type of scandal you choose, make sure it doesn’t involve abusing the power of your office. Voters hate that.

Continuity in American Policy, Fuck Yeah

Politico has an interesting interview with Robert Gates as he prepares to leave the Pentagon at the end of this month. One thing that struck me was what Gates sees as the source of American foreign policy strength:

There are signs that the transition from Bush to Obama wasn’t as easy as Gates made it look. He used a slow and deliberate approach as he moved from serving the “decider” to serving the former community organizer. But he credited Obama for adopting many of the policies of his predecessor, with the notable exceptions of detainees and interrogation.

It was extraordinary continuity among nine different presidents that allowed us to come out on top in the Cold War,” he said. In terms of bringing Iraq to a responsible ending, in terms of trying to recover the situation in Afghanistan, in terms of the fight against Al Qaeda and terrorism, I think there’s been a lot of continuity.”

Well he’s certainly right about that. And this overwhelming continuity and consensus in foreign policy (parts of which are very troubling to me) is having an interesting effect on the tone of the incipient presidential race. With no real substantive disagreements about the president’s decisions or tactics or strategies (well, except for John McCain’s perpetual lament that there’s still not enough war), and with the bin Laden triumph still fresh, it’s no surprise that the types of partisan critiques we’re seeing deal instead with generic cultural appeals to Obama’s “otherness” and his insufficient understanding and respect for how truly, dizzyingly awesome America is. To wit:

[Sarah Palin] also made a slight dig at President Obama for saying Monday at Arlington National Cemetery that his “most solemn responsibility as president [is] to serve as commander in chief of one of the finest fighting forces in the world.” Answering a question about Memorial Day, Palin said, “This is the greatest fighting force in the world, the U.S. military. It’s not just one of the greatest fighting forces. And I sure hope our president recognizes that. We’re not just one of many. We are the best.”

I really don’t know what this sort of superlative-mongering is supposed to show. These forced affirmations of greatness only serve to condition people to see U.S. military intervention as a more riskless and attractive proposition than it ought to be. And it tells me that the speaker will be wholly unable to consider and reckon with the limits of such intervention, when the limits inevitably present themselves. That is, of course, a disqualifying character flaw for a prospective commander-in-chief. As if Palin needs another.

As Greg Sargent shrewdly notes, however asinine this line of critique is, Obama’s relative Americanness will be one of the central Republican themes in the upcoming election. Hillary Clinton famously refused to play up the “Obama is un-American” card during the 2008 primary, much to the dismay of her reptillian campaign strategist Mark Penn. And while Sarah Palin was typically caustic in her embrace of this narrative during the general campaign, John McCain himself demurred. So perhaps Republicans think this theme has yet to be truly tested nationally, and still has some juice in it.

I doubt it. Obama’s favorables remain strong; people like the guy. After three years of seeing his continuity in foreign policy (and don’t forget bin Laden), and his rather banal centrist domestic ideology in action, exactly no one is still sitting at home wondering, “well I sort of like him but I just don’t know if he loves America quite as erotically as I do.” True, there is now a politically engaged movement of culturally-aggrieved Tea Partiers, for whom Obama’s otherness is a given. But we already know who they’re voting for; I just don’t think anyone is still on the fence about this. Besides, as the Democratic victory in NY-26 hints at, it is not Obama’s party that just voted to end Medicare. And Republicans will learn, nothin’s more American than Medicare.